Pelosi now one vote short thanks to unions

Rep. John Boccieri, Democrat of Ohio, just announced that he'll switch his vote from no to yes, and it's not hard to see why.

He is one of four Democrats to switch from no to yes in the past few days as Obama and Democratic leaders try to corral enough votes for the legislation. A vote is expected on Sunday.

Boccieri has been pressured on the issue. Labor unions and other groups backing health care reform ran ads in his district.

Boccieri voted against health care reform the first time around. A Blue Dog moderate and former pilot, he's been remarkably principled in his deliberations over ObamaCare, even turning down a ride on Air Force One with the president. But Boccieri represents a heavily blue collar congressional district near Cleveland. The union pressure proved to be too much.

With Boccieri in the yes column, Fox News counts 215 votes in favor of health care reform. Pelosi and Obama need just one more.

Blue Dogs' saving grace: Obama threatens not to campaign for Dems voting no!

With the fate of ObamaCare in the hands of nervous Blue Dog Democrats, Obama has decided to do what he does best: strongarm Chicago politics.

The president will refuse to make fund-raising visits during November elections to any district whose representative has not backed the bill.

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Mr Obama's threat came as the year-long debate over his signature domestic policy entered its final week.

Mr Obama is personally telephoning congressmen who are still on the fence this week, in between several personal appearances devoted toward swinging public opinion.

It will be interesting to see if moderate Democrats actually vote no based on the president's threat. Most Blue Dog Democrats are from fiscally conservative districts where Obama's approval rating is in the toilet plumbing. Keeping the president away during election season, as Obama threatened, has to be a top priority. This isn't mockery or hyperbole: Last week vulnerable Democrats in Pennsylvania and Ohio skipped scheduled speeches by the president on health care. Every serious poll shows that voters will be far more likely to vote against a Democrat if he or she votes yes on health care reform, and Obama is the front-and-center face of health care reform. This is one arm-twist that might actually backfire.