Last week we declared health care reform dead after the parliamentarian ruled that the president had to sign the Senate bill. This week, we're not so sure. The Democrats have wiggled their way around congressional rules and the Constitution, and may very well be able to ram this monstrosity through.
Despite the ruling of the Senate parliamentarian, House Democrats are still planning to vote on the reconciliation sidecar rather than the Senate bill itself, called the Slaughter Solution. This allows jittery Blue Dog Democrats to vote for health care without technically supporting the pork-laden Senate legislation. It's technically legal -- called a "self-executing rule" in Congress-speak -- but it's never been used to pass a bill this sweeping. All it needs to be approved is a majority vote in the House Rules Committee, which Democrats control 9-5. In 2005, Republicans used a self-executing rule to pass a national debt limit increase. Nancy Pelosi, Henry Waxman, and Louise Slaughter all filed briefs in court to have the vote ruled unconstitutional. Today Pelosi says of the Slaughter Solution, "I like it because people don't have to vote on the Senate bill." ObamaCare is so toxic at this point that the Speaker of the House is openly admitting she's happy her troops don't have to vote for it.
All this still doesn't mean that the bill will pass the House. Thanks to the parliamentarian, Congress can't pass the bill and the sidecar simultaneously. If the House does approve, the legislation will coast through another Senate vote and then land on the president's desk. After this, the Senate will have to take up the reconciliation sidecar. After the bruising legislative battle over the past year, many House Democrats are suspicious of the Senate's ability to get anything done. If the Senate doesn't make good on its promise to amend the bill with a sidecar, special deals like the Cornhusker Kickback will become law. That will mean many Blue Dogs will be toast (if they're not toast already).
But things are unquestionably worse than before. Perennial optimist Jim DeMint said he's less confident about ObamaCare dying than before. Rep. John Larson, vice chair of the House Democratic Caucus, said yesterday that Democrats have the votes (though that hasn't been confirmed by Pelosi or Clyburn).
If the bill passes, there will almost certainly be a court challenge. Yesterday a former appellate court judge wrote a scathing op-ed in the Wall Street Journal calling the Slaughter Solution unconstitutional. But with plenty of progressive judges scattered across the judiciary, nothing is certain at this point.
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