CBO gives BHO the green light on health care reform

There's a very, very good chance that ObamaCare will become law now.

Most congressmen sitting on the fence are Blue Dog Democrats who were waiting for the Congressional Budget Office to score the new reconciliation bill. The fiscally conservative Dems had two requests: They wanted the total bill to weigh in under $1 trillion and they wanted it to reduce the deficit over the next ten years. Moments ago, the CBO released its final analysis.

Senior Democratic aides Thursday provided a snapshot of what they say the Congressional Budget Office has found after evaluating the latest revised version of the health care bill — including the package of fixes.

House Democrats say the legislation will cost $940 billion over 10 years and will reduce the deficit by more than $100 billion in that first decade.

As has been repeated at length and chronicled here, none of this is true. ObamaCare is chock full of double accounting and financial tricks that have led many to compare it to Bernie Madoff. The CBO can only grade the bill that's put in front of them. They're forbidden from making even common sense predictions outside of the language of the bill. Somehow Pelosi and company managed to twist the bill's provisions enough to squeeze out a cost estimate below $1 trillion.

It's still impossible to know what will happen, but it seems almost certain that some wavering Blue Dogs will finally fall in line with Pelosi. It's much easier to vote for a $940 billion bill than a $1 trillion bill -- as the blogger Allahpundit pointed out yesterday, it's why things are priced at $99.99 rather than $100.00. The Hill's whip count found that the bill would fail 207-224 yesterday, but those numbers are highly speculative and likely to change today. House Democratic Whip Jim Clyburn has already said, "We are absolutely giddy" over the CBO numbers. If the Democrats finally do have the votes, we could see a final House vote as early as this weekend.

Paul Ryan: The anti-Obama

At yesterday's House Budget Committee meeting, the show was once again stolen by Rep. Paul Ryan. Aided by an alarming graph that showed the spiking national debt, the young Wisconsin Republican eloquently railed against ObamaCare, tax-and-spend, deficit spending, and statism. "We have a great tidal wave of debt coming in this country," he warned. "This is how great empires fall." After Democrats hit back with the usual accusations that he was siding with the insurance companies over the American people, Ryan quipped, "Listening to these arguments, I'm reminded of a pyromaniac in a field of straw men."

This is nothing new for Ryan, who has proven himself to be Obama's most principled and damning critic. At the vaunted health care reform summit two weeks ago, Ryan waited his turn, then patiently explained to the president's face that he was lying about the deficit, calling the health care bill "worse than Bernie Madoff." Obama looked slighted, but responded to Ryan with deference. He didn't have much of a choice. The congressman had pulled the rug out from under the president.

Ryan is only 40, though he looks about ten years younger. Elected to the House in 1999, he quickly rose through the Republican ranks to become the Ranking Member on the House Budget Committee. It's easy to understand why. Ryan is a policy wonk, easy on the eyes and ears, and an unabashed small-government conservative. He has said he was inspired by Jonah Goldberg's Liberal Fascism, a polemic that explores progressives' roots in the fascist movements of the early 20th-century. Last year, he introduced an alternative budget that would have frozen discretionary spending for five years and completely privatized Medicare.

Ryan actually is everything that Obama pretends to be. While the president poses as a deep thinker, Ryan has run rings around him in policy discussions. While the president hides his arrogance underneath a faux charm, Ryan genuinely seems like a nice guy. While the president fakes being articulate in front of a Teleprompter, Ryan is one of the most eloquent speakers in Congress.

Ryan's name is already on the GOP's short list of presidential contenders. It's unlikely he'll make a move in 2012, as House members almost never seek the presidency. But it's a shame that he won't. As the president's political fortunes plummet, Ryan could be that fresh face that the GOP is looking for. We'd put his intellect and charm up against Obama's any day of the election season.

Update: Here's the video of Ryan attacking ObamaCare on the House Budget Committee yesterday.